Let the meta roll on!
Wow, a new day and a new post (or two) about recent drama and war.
This time we have a couple people responding to the TMC post regarding the guilt (or lack thereof??) of CO2 in their resetting Imperium coalition in the face of invasion.
Let’s break it down.
As I noted previously, CO2 have flipped. Post battle around M-OEE8 system, they exited the coalition stage left, possibly to turn around and start shooting at their old allies. Which they have done, as both sides have now launched attacks against eachother.
Sebastien Saintfrusquin of Circle of Two starts his EN24 rebuttal by dickering over the relative sizes of the fleets involved. Well, fair enough, Imperium forces (at the time including CO2) were outnumbered, and his rebuttal suggests the numerical advantage enjoyed by MBC forces was more significant.
Next up the discussion of entosis mechanics, being blamed on incompetence rather than knowingly screwing things up. I’m willing to believe this one, because the mechanics are screwy enough to begin with anyway. Although in hindsight, if the whole flipping sides thing was pre-planned, then why did they go to so much effort (or lack thereof) to defend their space anyway. Maybe I shouldn’t believe this bit after all? It comes down to “how long has the reset been planned for?” to which we have to expect to get little in the way of an answer. But if you believe Seraph’s post (which I’ll come to after addressing Seb’s) then this was planned for a while before this whole fight happened, so that makes the entosis situation at least a little bit suspect, no?
Next up – cynojammers. Seb basically says that he and his entire leadership team straight up forgot about this one. He writes almost as if he was the only one in charge of anything for CO2, and therefore was run off his feet. But seriously, how in the hell did an entire leadership team, and directors, line members, FCs, and so on for an entire alliance fail to notice that maybe the cynojammers should be turned on for a fight where hostiles include groups like Pandemic Legion?? Should we honestly believe that everyone within CO2 forgot this ‘little’ fact? Just assumed ‘oh that guy over there must be in control of that’? Again, if true it’s a veritable comedy of errors and otherwise amusing incompetence (at best) and downright shockingly terrible in any other light. To an outside observer (so, me, then, being as I’m not in CO2) this is absurd, and kind of funny. The (now) meme “pants-on-head-retarded” coined (or at least used) by “Yahtzee” of Zero Punctuation fame is fittingly appropriate in this situation.The fact the jammers were later incapped during the fight is beside the point – why the hell weren’t they on to begin with? What sort of raging null-lunatic do you have to be to not have these vital anti-PL defences turned on during combat like this?
So after that he discusses the jump bridges. Frankly it reads more like a comedy of communication errors here. Or a certain degree of making mountains out of molehills on both sides. Either way a) someone should have checked on the JB network in the region in the run up to more fighting to update allies, and b) actually updates as many allies as possible, repeatedly and via evemail so that you have recorded communications as well as via chat channels like mumble or IRC (pidgin is a good one for this, honestly). According to Seb he did some of this. According to Goons, none of this occurred. More likely, some of this happened to an extent, but the information wasn’t disseminated properly, and so scuppered the situation. Now goons don’t want to admit their system fucked up and didn’t pick up the changes, and CO2 doesn’t want to admit they didn’t go to enough of an effort to make it known. This is small fry, honestly, in the face of the cynojammers.
The discussion that CO2 would have tried to help in the slaughter of Imperium Supercaps is an interesting one. Seb denies it but states that he doesn’t think anyone will believe him anyway. Imperium suggests it’s likely – but it reeks of supposition. Of course in EVE… well, this is EVE and lying to everyone about truth of intentions goes on on a regular basis, so again I don’t think we’ll know the actual truth of this one any time soon. Could they have done it? Yes. Would it have made sense if they were going to get an “in” with their new allies in MBC? Hell yes, it looks great on the resume and cripples your new enemies ability to take revenge on you. But were they actually going to do it? Well again, if you believe Seraph, they were already pretty much planning on dropping out of the coalition, so at that point anything is game. If you read the CO2 public statement and Seb’s on statements, however, it doesn’t really say one way or another, and just suggests that recent events are the straw that broke the camel’s back. I will note that the public statement of a separate plan with Bastion an Lawn to defence Tribute “separate from goons” is a bit on the suspicious side to say the least. I mean, if you’re being above board with your coalition, surely you’d want them to know that you’re planning on a strong defence with your nearest two allies to protect the area and kill off encroaching MBC forces. Right? I mean, I get that working with Lawn and Bastion is a positive thing – this is good, working with other coalition members is a positive indicator. Doing it behind the coalition leaders backs? Err,… why?
Okay, so there’s all that, some of it believable and some of it not so much. What about super travel routes and towers? Well going over it, honestly I’m willing to believe Seb on this one. Mostly anyway. I mean the discussion about routes to avoid hostiles makes sense, and he’s posting logs to support it. Okay, yes, the logs could be fake, but if we assume they’re not, then he did make an effort to protect IMP forces. Discussions on interdictors? Well, all we’ve got is his word on that. And even if he’s telling the truth from his point of view, that assumes that people did or would have had time to report that sort of action. And assumes that everyone in CO2 works together well, or is completely honest with each other and has no spies, and that much like the fifth column bit, Seb is telling the truth. As with that part, maybe he is, maybe he isn’t.
Of course, the discussions of his knowledge of this a week before the fight is interesting. As he rightly points out, CFC leadership wouldn’t want to throw supers into the fight if they knew they’d be outnumbered (or at least had a strong hunch of that fact, coupled with spies), and as an FC he’d know. Hence why it makes it likely he’s at least being honest about the fifth column stuff and the interdictors. At least in regard to opportunity. Doesn’t give us an honest answer about intent, but he’s right that he wouldn’t have had the opportunity to do either, and this is where we can give him the benefit of the doubt on those responses and believe him – he should have led with this point early on, frankly.
The big problem is that he ends with admitting that he said to DBRB that he was paid off, and then after admitting it tried to backtrack to say that, no he wasn’t, but he probably will be soon by the IWI guys. This is what makes it difficult to believe the entire statement, and hence why he’s not entirely convincing. I mean, why admit that you are being paid off, and then backtrack to say you aren’t but will be soon? Either way, he/his alliance is getting paid to essentially turn their coat against the Imperium in favour of MBC forces – no point prettying it up, they have turned against their ex-allies. Maybe they’re doing the right thing in removing or at least reducing goon influence. Maybe they’re not in that they’ve now established a precedent of their alliance turning on allies for their own benefit. But regardless, it’s done, and money is/was/will be involved in that decision. I can respect the pragmatism. I just don’t know if I can respect the decision making that led to it, the results it might create, or the actual actions involved. Or the honesty (and/or occasional lack thereof). It’s difficult to trust someone who betrays his own allies, even if those allies are villains. You’re never going to be sure if a) they’ll do it to you next because they’ve done it before, or b) they actually did it at all. After all, they could still be villains, faking it to gain your trust. If it had happened during a quiet period, and money hadn’t been involved, and they’d done it for political/moral reasons, neither I nor anyone else (except the Imperium, obviously) could take any real issue with it. But it happened during what is fast proving to be a war, after a big fight, money is involved, and there’s lots of finger pointing – this was never going to be a good moment to do this.
So – CO2. Idiots or traitors? Looks like a little of both, though when it comes to whether or not they’re honest traitors is still up for decision. But not onlining cynojammers marks them as idiots, or possibly less-honest traitors. Thing is, due to when and how they left the Imperium, no matter how you slice it? They’re still traitors. At the very least they just betrayed all the friends and now ex-allies who came to their space to help protect it, and rendered their efforts worthless.
But let’s stay on topic and look at Seraph’s post about how he’s involved in this mess. He repeatedly states that CO2 didn’t betray the imperium because of this fight, or set of fights, and that it goes further back. Well then, that makes Seb look less innocent already. Apparently he was the one (or one of the ones) involved in turning CO2. Well, okay then. And the idea that there was no ulterior motive is… unlikely. Again, this is EVE. Also, you don’t go talking to hostile alliances, and try to persuade them to do things like ship minerals for your side if it means they’re betraying their own guys. Not unless you want something, and I don’t just mean the minerals.
But what about discussions that CO2 didn’t integrate into the coalition in an effort to retain internal culture? Honestly, that’s fair to me, and as long as they joined in with alliance fun times, fleets, and general chatter and hanging out, there’s no issue here. If they did, then no issue. If not then… well, why join in the first place? That aside though, Sion apparently came on heavy handed, according to Seraph, and caused trouble for CO2. This I can believe, having watched his Fanfest videos. Plus when you combine it with previous commentary from others who have left Goons, many of whom were longtime friends of Mittens himself, and still somehow maintained friendships on Something Awful afterwards, well… it doesn’t look very good for Sion, does it? I can well believe that he’s caused problems, which are now coming to a head.
Unless you buy into the idea that all of this, including this war, is something that Sion, SUAS, Endie, Mittens, Blawrf, and others have all engineered in an effort to start something interesting in EVE again, but that’s a pretty high degree of tinfoil required, and I don’t do that much work with my grill at home, so let’s skip that one, eh?
We are shown plenty of instances where CO2 stayed loyal to CFC forces during discussions. So again, I’m willing to give Seb the benefit of the doubt if we take Seraph as being truthful. However, we hit the last three paragraphs discussing the terms of CO2 turning against their allies, and we hit the discussion of bribes and payoffs again. When Seb is already admitting (in two different ways) to payoffs, either paid or to be paid, then Seraph saying there was no payoff suddenly looks a bit off. Or at least badly written or badly informed. Maybe Seb is miscommunicating. Or maybe he’s being honest and Seraph is trying and failing to cover things up. Maybe they both are.
Right now it looks like the reality is that CO2 turned traitor, but not quite to the degree that Goons think they did, and that some of the issues are down to terrible communications, and severe stupidity. On both sides. Looks like CO2 were provided an “offer they couldn’t refuse” and turned against their old allies. Probably would have helped if Sion was less of a known jerk. Of course we’re going to see plenty more spin in the meantime before this topic is run into the ground, so I’m keeping my popcorn ready.
Update: Let’s do a quick run through of the Goon rebuttal, shall we?
(Okay, wow an embed? Whatever). You only need to listen to the first 20-30 mins, the rest is just general goon chatter.
This is pretty public, but lets go through it.
We’ve got discussion of the route issue – hmm, let’s look at dotlan. Aaand, yeah okay he’s got a point here. MJ13-8 is out in the end of nowhere. What sort of sanity has you run a route that guys like PL can birddog? What the hell, CO2? But okay, maybe you’re just dumb dudes who don’t know shit and can’t turn on cynojammers (seriously, what?). So let’s hang judgement on the POS and Interdictor thing until we see pictures, but that’s kind of suspect if true. Sure, sure, spinmaster 5000, but he’s right that verifying a route that Seb himself posted on EN24 shows that it’s so damn vulnerable that it’s unreal unless you don’t understand nullsec geography.
Now, unless/until we hear somewhere else, we’ve only got his word that PL formed up a horde of capitals, and fleet members. But if they did, to the degree they did (battlereports will support these statements, in fairness) then… again, what the hell? It starts to look more than a little suspicious. Especially when it’s just one iHub among many. Very very wierd. Colour me suspicious of both sides here (spoiler: I’m totally suspicious of everyone involved in this mess now) but I think the idea that CO2 have been planning some serious betrayal for a while now to be way more believable.
There is some serious funny shit going on here with CO2 the more I hear about it. Seraph and Seb already made it look suspicious – if they hadn’t posted anything, then perhaps it would have been better for them, but the more they protest, the more guilty they look. The lady doth protest too much!